State Pension Forecast: How to Check Yours and What It Actually Means

What the state pension forecast shows

Your forecast tells you three things: how much state pension you're on track to get, the date you can claim it, and whether you can improve it by paying more National Insurance. It's based on your National Insurance record up to the current tax year, not a guess about the future.

The full new state pension for 2026/27 requires 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions or credits. If you have fewer, your forecast will show a reduced amount, worked out roughly on a pro-rata basis. Fewer than 10 qualifying years usually means no state pension at all.

Crucially, the forecast shows what you'd get if you carry on contributing at your current rate until state pension age. If you're planning to stop work early, or you've had years of low earnings or unemployment, the actual figure could turn out lower than the headline number on the page.

Why gaps happen more often than people expect

Career breaks, self-employment with low profits, time spent caring for children or relatives, and periods of unemployment without claiming benefits can all leave gaps in your record. Some of these are covered automatically by credits – for example, Child Benefit claimants get National Insurance credits even if they don't need the benefit payment itself – but only if you actually claim it.

This is one reason some parents, particularly higher earners who opted out of Child Benefit because of the High Income Child Benefit Charge, unknowingly damage their pension record. Claiming the benefit and paying back the charge, rather than not claiming at all, protects the NI credit.

Self-employed people can also fall into gaps if profits are too low to trigger Class 2 contributions automatically, so it's worth checking your record rather than assuming everything is ticking over.

Filling gaps with voluntary contributions

You can usually pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance contributions to fill gaps, and normally you can only go back six tax years. There have been temporary extended deadlines allowing people to fill much older gaps back to 2006, so it's worth checking current rules before assuming the standard six-year limit applies to you.

Whether it's worth paying depends on your age, how many years you're short, and how long you expect to draw the state pension. As a rough guide, buying a missing qualifying year typically adds a fixed weekly amount to your pension for life once you claim it, which for many people pays for itself within a few years of retirement. It's not automatically the right move for everyone, so check your own numbers rather than following a blanket rule.

State pension age and when you can claim

State pension age isn't fixed at 65 or 66 for everyone. It depends on your date of birth and is being gradually reviewed and adjusted by the government over time. Your forecast will show your own personal state pension age based on current legislation, but this is a projection, not a guarantee it won't change again before you get there.

If retirement planning depends heavily on a specific state pension start date, it's sensible to build in some flexibility, especially if you're more than 10 or 15 years away from claiming.